Forex Trading Signals by Magister Pips, 2012/01/24
2130 AU CPI q/q (+0.2% expected, +0.6% prior, -0.2% to +0.5% range) -
Top 3 analysts : 1st +0.2 2nd +0.1 3rd -0.2
Affliated Reports
AU CPI y/y (+3.3% expected, +3.5% prior, +2.8% to +3.6% range)
AU CPI Trimmed Mean q/q (+0.5% expected, +0.3% prior, +0.2% to +0.7% range)
Top 3 analysts : 1st +0.2% 2nd +0.5% 3rd +0.6%
AU CPI Trimmed Mean y/y (+2.4% expected, +2.3% prior, +2.1% to +2.6% range)
AU CPI Weighted Median q/q (+0.5% expected, +0.3% prior, +0.2% to +0.7% range)
Top 3 analysts : 1st +0.2% 2nd +0.5% 3rd +0.6%
AU CPI Weighted Median y/y (+2.4% expected, +2.6% prior, +2.1% to +2.6% range)
Another Quarterly release from downunder, but unlike last week's NZD CPI this one comes out with
6 figures which makes it a bit more tricky to trade. Last release in October was interesting because
both of the main headline CPI QoQ and YoY were flat, but there were -0.3% deviations on both Trimmed
Mean and Weighted Mean QoQ, along with a -0.4 on Trimmed Mean y/y and -0.1 Weighted Mean Y/Y, not to
mention slight upward revisions to the previous months. This was enough to spike the AUDUSD down
50 pips, a 20 pip pullback after 5 minutes then an additional 30 pip afterspike move for a new low
15 minutes after the release and 60-65 pip total. Things went choppy thru the rest of the asian
session but saw another low during the european session.
In July, all 6 figures came out with a +0.2 deviation. The Aussie Dollar rallied some 120 pips
over 11 minutes. The initial blast off in the 1st minute was about 80 pips so there was about 40
pips to be caught on the afterspike but there was not really much pullback at all, you would have
just had to jump on board the moving train.
In April a +0.4 & +0.3 on CPI QoQ & YoY, +0.2 on Trimmed Mean on both QoQ & YoY, +0.2 & +0.1 on
Weighted Mean QoQ & YoY caused an initial 30 pip spike in the 1st minute, and price did continue
without retracement for another 4 minutes for an additional 20 pips for a total of 50 pips. A
double top at the highs 12 minutes after the release capped the upmove.
So we see varying amounts of pips, the nice even 0.2 deviation accross the board in July actually
lead to a better spike than larger deviations on some of the figures but lower on others: such as
we had in April and October. A +/-0.2 deviation on any of the 3 QoQ figure numbers should be fine,
however especially the headline CPI and Trimmed Mean, but as we saw last month things moved without
the headline, so do not just trade headline. Setup a trigger on Trimmed Mean at least as well.
If you have the Elite weapon you can tie 2 or 3 of the QoQ figures together to enter, or set separate
triggers on each and let the quickest click the target. There will be alot to watch. AFter 3 QoQ
figures, then check the 3 YoY numbers to agree, finally any revisions. You will have to do a quick
net sum of up to possibly 12 numbers to assess whether to stay in for a further move or cover. However
if the past 3 releases are anything to go by it is worth taking the trouble because these quarterly
figures on GDP and CPI do work very well. Careful for any data delays as well from Australia.
If Headline & Trimmed Mean come out +0.2 or higher, and the rest do not conflict,
AUD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If Headline & Trimmed Mean come out -0.2 or lower, and the rest do not conflict,
AUD/USD should fall 40 pips.
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