Forex Trading Signals by Magister Pips, 2012/01/25
1500 NZD Interest Rates m/m (+2.5% expected, +2.5% prior, +2.5% unanimous)
All 14 analysts polled by Bloomberg expect no change in Rates today from the RBNZ. They have
been on hold now since March 2011. Despite this same situation last month the NZDUSD pair did
rally 45 pips after the release, and the time before that was similar and the there was a 60-70
pip rally. This was all due to the statement, this is traders will be watching. Those waiting
for a rate change to catch an spike trade may have to be patient for a few more months, although
we do hope that when the RBNZ do a rate change it is a surprise and the analysts have not already
priced it into expectations, although there will still be some move on a confirmation. Last time
Bollard just moved expectations of a hike in March 2012 out to the middle of 2012, but didn't
outright demolish this anticipated hike, others are calling for a cut due to the situation in
Europe. Other Central Banks have been Cutting, Isreal, Thailand & India or have held where rates
were expected to be hiked like Turkey and Hungary. So all eyes will be on Bollard for any hints
what RBNZ will do, likely they will wait for now. Watch out to any revisions to RBNZ Governor
Bollards GDP and CPI estimates, if these are changes it will affect the price of the Kiwi Dollar
as well. This release comes in the aftermath of the big moves of the FOMC, so it might not get
alot of attention.
If they hike, buy NZDUSD, NZDJPY or sell EURNZD, AUDNZD or GBPNZD
If the cut, sell NZDUSD &/or NZDJPY or buy EURNZD, AUDNZD or GBPNZD
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