Forex Trading Signals by Magister Pips, 2012/02/01
0815 US ADP Employment (182k expected, 325k prior, +145k to +300k range) 150-200 most
Top analyst est.: 3rd +250k 4th +183k 7th +180k (no estimate from others)
Estimates Range Spread: 155k vs. 105k Jan11 vs. 105k nov11 vs. 112k oct11
A very nice sized deviation last month +148k lead to USDJPY rallying 30-40 pips over the next few
hours, so it took time on this pair and the initial spike was only 10 pips or so. CADJPY had a
30-35 pip spike in the 1st minute then retraced over the next 8 before again rallying above the
initial spike highs. The EMini S&P spike 6 handles for about 24 ticks. Things rallied for about
45 minutes, going sidewise at the top of the hour and then came back down as the US market opened.
This was on January 5th so the market was still quite low volume as in the past such large have
made even larger moves. This data is suppose to give a hint for Friday's big NFP data. There is
also Challenger Job Cuts, the Employment component of ISM and of course the weekly Initial Jobless
Claims which has been doing better since December. Last month the NFP did also come out higher
as the ADP did, but it did not deviate as much. This could have been due to estimates being
revised upward due to the strong ADP. Analysts still give ADP lost of credit. At this point the
Median estimate for NFP is +145k with a low estimate of +95k and a high estimate for +225k. We
will see if today's release will change this at all. Are triggers of +/-70k have been working
quite well so we will keep going with these, we used to trade +/-50k but this became unreliable
last year and since then 70k has been working well. The +76k deviation on december 2011 release
worked quite well with CADJPY spike 40 pips, pulling back and then rallying to new highs for a
total of +70-75 pips...so this is recent enough evidence to continue with this deviation trigger.
If ADP comes out +252k or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-40 pips,CADJPY 40-80 pips, EMini 15-30 ticks
If ADP comes out +112k or lower, USD/JPY should drop 30-40 pips, CADJPY 40-80 pips, EMini 15-30 ticks
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