Forex Trading Signals by Magister Pips, 2012/02/03
04:28 GBP Services PMI (53.3 exp, 54.0 prior, 52.0 to 55.0 range)
Last month a +2.5 deviation and after a tiny pop the pair sold off, not usual for such a good
print. The pair had run up off 1.5585 to 1.5625 ahead of the release. There was alot of risk
off that day as eurusd also sold off hard, and big moves were exacerbated by low post-xmas
volume. These UK PMI figures used to be good to trade, but now it is nearly reliable enough
to trade against them, for example shorting the small spike after the release...So we could
widen out the triggers, perhaps to like +/-4.0 which will create a big headline, just like the
super large deviation on Norway PMI the other day. Also must pay close attention to the moves
on the British Pound pairs leading into the news to see if there might be a rumor or leak which
is creating pre-news moves. That seems to be what has happened to this economic indicator.
Somehow a rumor or leak is creating a move before the release, which turns out to agree with
the deviation on the print, ie GBPUSD moved up before the release and we get a positive deviation,
but then after whoever knew the number beforehand takes profit and gets all those reacting to
the deviation after the release stuck. However you can tighten the deviation in the opposite
direction so if GBPUSD rallys into the release, and you see similar moves on GBPCHF, GBPJPY &
EURGBP (in reverse) then you could tighten the sell trigger.
-If it is 57.0 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 35-65 pips
-If it is 49.5 or lower, GBP/USD should drop 35-65 pips
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