Forex Trading Signals by Magister Pips, 2012/02/03
0830 US NonFarm Payrolls (+140K expected, 200k prior, +95k to +225k range)
Affliated Late
US Unemployment Rate (8.5% expected, 8.5% prior, 8.3% to 8.7% range)
US NonFarm Payrolls Revision (+200k last month)
US Private Payrolls (+160k expected, +212k prior, +110k to +250k range)
US Manufacturing Payrolls (+12k expected, +23k prior, +9k to +25k range)
Last months +45k deviation came with a -0.2% deviation in the Unemployment Rate. The USDJPy
jumped about 15 pips, but came back down within a half hour. CADJPY blasted higher about 30-35
pips in the 1st minute, hovered near the highs for 5 more, then also came back down, and was
30 pips below pre-release by the time New York opened. The EURUSD just continued to sell-off
as it had already been doing thru the European session, in a risk-off low volume market. The
EMini S&P 500 Futures Contract jumped from about 1276 to 1282, it hung just off those highs for
about 20 minutes, moving down into the top of the hour 9:00 EST, and dropped alot more for the
1st half hour of the US Equity Open to 1268 or so. Pretty tame moves by NFP standards. Earlier
this week the ADP came out slightly worse at 170k vs. 182k expected, but with also a revision to
the previous of 292k vs. 325k last. Since this the Median Estimate for the NFP has dropped from
145k to 140k. This number could include alot of lay-offs of Temporary Christmas workers, however
on the other side the weekly Initial Jobless Claims has been consistently below 400k since
December 2011, coming out at 367k vs. 377k last week and 352k the week before. The Challenger
Job Cuts report was higher coming in at 38.9% vs. 30.6% prior, suggesting more lay-offs this month.
Universite of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was up 75.0 vs. 74.0 expected, while Consumer Confidence
was lower at 61.1 vs. 68.0 expected. The Employment Component of ISM Manufacturing PMI was lower
at 54.3 vs. 54.8 expected. It appears there will be some annual revisions to previous numbers so
listen for any big changes. The usual triggers of 50k have worked will, while it missed by 5k
last month the moves were not that amazing. You could tighten them and use a smaller position size
if you want to grab some quick smaller sum of pips/ticks. The Stock Index Futures should be best
to trade here followed by CADJPY, but keep an eye on the US Dollar.
If Employment comes out at +190k or higher, and unemployment Rate is flat or lower,
USDJPY should rally 40+ pips also CADJPY should rally 60+ pips & EMini 5 handles
If Employment comes out at +90K or lower, and unemployment Rate is flat or higher,
USDJPY should sell off 40+ pips also CADJPY should drop 60+ pips & EMini 5 handles
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