Forex Trading Signals by Magister Pips, 2012/02/05
Forex News Trading Signal for Australian Retail Sales
19:30 Australian Retail Sales (MoM) (+0.2% exp, 0.0% prior, -0.2% to +0.5% range)
Affliated:
AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (+0.6% exp, +0.6% prior, -0.1% to +1.3% range)
Last months -0.4 deviation on the month-on-month figure came with no revision also no QoQ Ex-Inflation
figure was released last month. This lead to an initial 30 pip spike which then pulled back at least
half that over the next hour, but had a drop then for a lower low, and again bounced and this time
regained all the losses. The was a drop of about 20 pips leading into the release of the news. Big
surprise...
The November 30th 2011 release was a -0.2 and also came with no Q/Q ex-Inflation figure, this time
there was an initial 20-25 pip spike, chopping about for 20 minute to make a new low for a total
of about 35 pips before again retracing all the losses.
The Nov 2nd 2011 release was flat as was the Q/Q ex-Inflation Number and there was only chop. October
has a similar deviation to last month, this time a positive +0.4 with a +0.1 revision, had a small short-
lived 25 pip pop higher for the 1st minute after the release then turned around and gradually dropped 30
pips below pre-release price by 40 minutes after the news.
So a +/-0.4 can work for a few pips if you have good fast execution and no slippage, you can scalp a
moderate amount of pips. However it is not reliable as shown in the difference between the moves on
October 2011 and January 2012 on 0.4 deviations.
With the QoQ ex-Inflation also coming out with this release it could get some extra attention, not to
mention that the RBA will announce the Rate decision tomorrow and currently only 3 out of 27 analysts
expect them to hold at 4.25%, the other 24 expect a cut of 25 bps for 4.00%
Since the last q/q release on Nov 2nd 2011 was flat, looking at August 2nd 2011 there was a -0.1 on the q/q
ex-Inflation with a +0.2 revision, while the MoM was a -0.5 with no revision. A decent +55 pip move over
11 minutes, however Trade Balance was also released at the same time and it was also a bit lower.
On the May 4th 2011 the QoQ came out -0.6 with -0.1 revision along with a full -1.0 on the MoM but +0.3
revision. Obviously quite a big deviation. A strong blast of 60 pips all in the 1st minute and the quite
flat a half hour then gradually grinding down for another 20 pips or so over 2 hours, before some bids and
a 50% retracement of the move, but as Europe opened the pair sold ovv again more substantially, dropping
an addition 100 pips by 6am New York time.
A +/-0.5 should work on this, just watch that QoQ Ex-Inflation Number, we can see in May 2011 the MoM
deviation moved the pair nicely while the QoQ Ex-Inflation was pretty flat when you Net the deviation
out against its own revision. Obviously if MoM has a slightly smaller than +/-0.5 deviation but Q/Q comes
out deviating big, in agreement with the MoM dev, then you could also trade this. Obviously avoid conflicts
if the 2 figures deviate in different directions. Try setting triggers on both with +/-0.5 or so. If there
is a good sized deviation like in May leave some on to ride out into the european session for a larger move,
but take into account the affects that the RBA cut ahead may have on the pair.
Forex News Trading Deviation
If MoM comes out at +0.7% or higher, and QoQ is flat or higher, AUD/USD should rally 50+ pips.
If MoM comes out at -0.3% or lower, and QoQ is flat or lower, AUD/USD should drop 50+ pips.
Try our Forex Trading Signals via Email
Did you know that you can subscribe to our Free Forex Daily Trading Email Signals? You can subscribe from the front page. We also recommend to try our Live Forex Room where we provide Live Forex Signals and Live Futures Signals.
Go back to Forex Trading Signals main page