Forex Trading Signals by Magister Pips, 2012/02/15
1930 AU Employment Change (+10.0K exp, -29.3k prior, -10.0k to +36.0k range)
Affliated Reports:
AU Unemployment Rate (+5.3% expected, +5.3% prior, +5.2% to +5.5% range)
AU Fulltime Employment Change ( 0k expected, +24.5k prior, -10.0k to +10.0k range)
AU Parttime Employment Change ( +7.5k expected, -53.7k prior, -20k to +20k range)
AU Participation Rate (65.3% expected, +65.2% prior, +64.9% to +65.5% range)
Last month a -39.3k deviation lower came with a lower Rate which conflicted, as well as higher
Fulltime Employment of +5.7k deviation higher. Thus the lower deviation lower was due to part-
time jobs at -44.9k lower. The initial reaction was to blast lower 40 pips and then bounced
back 30 of those pips within 5 minutes. Things then just went sidewise until the european open
when the lows were tested and then bounced higher and sweeped out the pre-release swing high.
Thus a conflict but price reacted off the net number first. If the Rate had agreed and came
out higher and if the loss in Net change was due to a loss in jobs in Fulltime job then it is
likely that the move lower would have continued, but this was a conflict. However it does
reassure that the initial move will be to follow the deviation in the Net Change figure.
Starting last month we now have forecasts on Fulltime and Partime jobs where before we just had
to compare based on the prior number. There are only 6 analysts giving estimates for these
figures however, compared to 25 on the main Net Change figure. A 20k deviation should be enough
to use as a trigger for a spike trade on the Net Change figure, however get out if the other
numbers do not agree. Be aware that the news might have some delays due to the way alot of news
is released in Australia over the phone, so if there is a sharp move before the figure appears on
the weapon then cancel the trade.
If Net Change is 30K or higher & Rate is flat or lower & F/T Emp Change is flat or higher,
AUD/USD should rally 40-70 pips.
If Net Change is -10K or lower & UR is flat or higher & F/T Emp. Change is flat or lower,
AUD/USD should drop 40-70 pips.
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