Forex Trading Signals by Magister Pips, 2012/02/17
4:30 UK Retail Sales Ex AutoFuel MoM (-0.3% expected, +0.6% prior, -0.9% to 0.0% range)
or UK Retail Sales w/ AutoFuel MoM (-0.3% expected, +0.6% prior, -0.9% to +1.1% range)
Affliated Reports:
UK Retail Sales Ex AutoFuel YoY (-0.1% expected, +1.7% prior, -0.6% to +0.6% range)
UK Retail Sales w/ AutoFuel YoY (+0.5% expected, +2.6% prior, 0.0% to +1.9% range)
Last month this one came out close to expectations but there was a downward revision to the previous
month. Cable actually did sell off about 25 pips over 10 minutes. Earlier in the session GBPUSD had
hit its Big Mid-Century at 1.5500 and then started to sell off as London Opened, leading into the
release, and this continued after the release. Although the revisions on the MoM figures were just
-0.1 the previous month YoY figures were revised down -0.5 and -0.3. Ex AutoFuel was actually up +0.1
for the month being reported as was w/AutoFuel YoY up +0.2 but the other 2 were flat. So really this
was a no trade as the deviation was not large enough. Basically 1.5500 was a retest of the Jan 10th
high that was achieved before the Pound sold off on expectations of a bad Industrial Production number
on Jan 12th, leading into S&P downgrade of Frace. So 1.5000 was natural resistance that morning of
Jan 20th. In Nov 2011, a +0.9 deviation on ExAutoFuel m/m along with a +0.8 on w/AF m/m, with -0.1
revisions to the previous month, this lead to a 30 pip pop on the GBPUSD, all in the 1st minute after
the release. Within 5 minutes the pair was back down to pre-release price. A good deviation but no
continuation past the initial spike seen. Not a good reaction, normally we would have expected to see
continuation past the initial spike high with this kind of deviation. We must remember that
the broader trend seen during November has been down after October's sharp upward correction to 1.6165.
Be aware of any move on cable into the news and adjust triggers in opposition to the pre-news move.
-If either comes out deviating +1.0% or more above expected reading,
GBP/USD should rally sharply for at least 40 pips
-If either comes out deviating -1.0% or less below expected reading,
GBP/USD should fall sharply for at least 40 pips
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